The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives
En este nuevo libro, Leonard Mlodinow examina la ley del caminar del borracho en relación con la vida humana diaria, con las diversas decisiones que continuamente tomamos empujados por acontecimientos arbitrarios que, unidos a nuestras reacciones, influyen en la mayor parte de nuestra vida personal.
The Drunkards Walk is a book about randomness, a topic that most people, unless they happen to be mathematicians or have a strange fascination with statistics, probably dont think too much about. As a species, in fact, we generally prefer not to dwell on randomness, but rather to assume that we are in control of much more of our lives than we actually are. In this new book, physicist Leonard Mlodinow attempts to show why underestimating randomness is really not a good idea. He lays a foundation
A decade ago, the statistician author of this book tested positive for AIDS. The doctor informed him that the test was 99.9% accurate, so there was little hope for error. After an abysmal weekend, he began to question the relevancy this number. The incidence of AIDS (within his demographicmiddle aged, non-IV-drug user) is 1 in 10,000. So, out of every 10,000 who take the test, 1 person will test positive and will have the disease. HOWEVER, with a .1% error rate, of those same 10,000 tested, 10
Fascinating book ... It was interesting how many people I spoke to about this get very passionate about randomness. Many people think acknowledging randomness is denying God.The book is a bit chatty, and needs to focus a bit more on errors people make with statistics in their personal lives ... but Mlodinow hit on an essential concept.I liked this lesson: that successful people are lucky, but that lucky people are persistent, flexible, and brave.
I found this book fascinating. I knew I didn't understand statistics, but I didn't realize how little I understood about randomness and probability. The Monty Hall problem (aka "Let's make a deal", Ch. 3); the effect that naming a girl child "Florida" can have on the probability of having two girls (Bayesian theory, Ch. 6, p. 107); the errors that people consistently make on relative probabilities (see, e.g., p. 36-40). I especially liked the sections on how we tend to find patterns where there
this book is great. it takes you through the history of how the statistics and probabilities we understand (or try to understand) today were first proven. It's amazing how probability is just simply not an intuitive thing for the human mind. be prepared for some anecdotes that will leave you scratching your head. Mlodinov examples of human biases are entertaining and thought provoking. Anyone who likes interesting factoids, data, or wants to understand the world better will find this a good
Leonard Mlodinow
Hardcover | Pages: 252 pages Rating: 3.92 | 18964 Users | 1489 Reviews
Point Books To The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives
Original Title: | The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives |
ISBN: | 0375424040 (ISBN13: 9780375424045) |
Edition Language: | English |
Literary Awards: | Royal Society Science Book Prize Nominee (2009) |
Description Supposing Books The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives
Esta apasionante lectura nos descubre la naturaleza de los procesos arbitrarios de la vida cotidiana y cambia para siempre la percepción que tenemos de ellos. En 1905 Albert Einstein publicó una impactante explicación sobre el movimiento browniano -el movimiento arbitrario de partículas- comparándolo con la clase de movimiento que se observaría en el caminar de un borracho. La comparación se convirtió desde entonces en una poderosa herramienta para entender el movimiento puramente arbitrario que, por definición, no tiene ningún modelo específico.En este nuevo libro, Leonard Mlodinow examina la ley del caminar del borracho en relación con la vida humana diaria, con las diversas decisiones que continuamente tomamos empujados por acontecimientos arbitrarios que, unidos a nuestras reacciones, influyen en la mayor parte de nuestra vida personal.
Specify Regarding Books The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives
Title | : | The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives |
Author | : | Leonard Mlodinow |
Book Format | : | Hardcover |
Book Edition | : | Special Edition |
Pages | : | Pages: 252 pages |
Published | : | May 13th 2008 by Pantheon Books |
Categories | : | Nonfiction. Science. Psychology. Mathematics. Economics. Business. Philosophy |
Rating Regarding Books The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives
Ratings: 3.92 From 18964 Users | 1489 ReviewsCriticism Regarding Books The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives
There is a lot that is disturbing in this book. Are we 'Masters of the Universe'? Not so much.The author discusses in a breezy, easy to understand conversational manner how randomness and chance are behind many human decisions which we believe to be either based on educated guesses or personal skills, as well as how luck functions far more than we know in how things turn out for us. Briefly, but entertaining all the while, the author discusses famous incidents which illuminate the psychologyThe Drunkards Walk is a book about randomness, a topic that most people, unless they happen to be mathematicians or have a strange fascination with statistics, probably dont think too much about. As a species, in fact, we generally prefer not to dwell on randomness, but rather to assume that we are in control of much more of our lives than we actually are. In this new book, physicist Leonard Mlodinow attempts to show why underestimating randomness is really not a good idea. He lays a foundation
A decade ago, the statistician author of this book tested positive for AIDS. The doctor informed him that the test was 99.9% accurate, so there was little hope for error. After an abysmal weekend, he began to question the relevancy this number. The incidence of AIDS (within his demographicmiddle aged, non-IV-drug user) is 1 in 10,000. So, out of every 10,000 who take the test, 1 person will test positive and will have the disease. HOWEVER, with a .1% error rate, of those same 10,000 tested, 10
Fascinating book ... It was interesting how many people I spoke to about this get very passionate about randomness. Many people think acknowledging randomness is denying God.The book is a bit chatty, and needs to focus a bit more on errors people make with statistics in their personal lives ... but Mlodinow hit on an essential concept.I liked this lesson: that successful people are lucky, but that lucky people are persistent, flexible, and brave.
I found this book fascinating. I knew I didn't understand statistics, but I didn't realize how little I understood about randomness and probability. The Monty Hall problem (aka "Let's make a deal", Ch. 3); the effect that naming a girl child "Florida" can have on the probability of having two girls (Bayesian theory, Ch. 6, p. 107); the errors that people consistently make on relative probabilities (see, e.g., p. 36-40). I especially liked the sections on how we tend to find patterns where there
this book is great. it takes you through the history of how the statistics and probabilities we understand (or try to understand) today were first proven. It's amazing how probability is just simply not an intuitive thing for the human mind. be prepared for some anecdotes that will leave you scratching your head. Mlodinov examples of human biases are entertaining and thought provoking. Anyone who likes interesting factoids, data, or wants to understand the world better will find this a good
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